My outlook for when this pandemic is over, at least in the u.s. : 10-15 days.

It'll end with between 14k and 20k deaths.

Heres the script:
https://pastebin.com/yWgE6agi

I highly doubt that.
Where do you even get those numbers from?

Its alarmingly low.

U.s. case count as of today.

Calculated rate of increase in total cases going from march 19th to today.

The decay rate of new cases per day was calculated by taking the ratio of day by day increases or decreases, and then averaging them.

So as time goes by the rate of infection should go down based on 1. distancing, 2. better hygiene, 3. awareness, and other measures.

This calculates that, as well as the total expected cases in the u.s. only.

It's alarmingly low because the new case rate is still greater than 1, but before this is over we can expect near 1 million infections in the u.s. to put it in perspective.

Death rate is calculated from a 2% fatality rate according to official numbers.

I did this as a reality check because I tend to panic.

In other words the experts are right, stay calm but be safe. This will be over in the timeline many scientists are predicting.

@M1sf3t yep, you got it right. Lot of noise to signal.

There's some models that indicate a marginally higher death rate and a moderately higher case count but at the end of the day we'll know when we know.

no way this is "over" in 10-15 days.
If you'd stop all human interactions right now it will peak and plateau then. But this pandemic will last well into September.

Especially in the U.S. with it's atrocious health care system where people with low income can't get care as they can't afford it. And thus go to work with covid-19 as there is in many cases no sick leave. And millions of americans loose their employer issued health insurance as they get let go. Treatment of covid-19 in the US without insurance costs around $24'000. With insurance $9500.
So no. This will not be over by easter.

@M1sf3t most people in the us live paycheck to paycheck without insurance. When even countries with an relative good heathcare system struggle, how hard the us will be hit?
The us have around 330 million.
Germany has around 80 million. Its estimated that if we let the virus go through the people without hindrance, over 1 million die (mostly elderly over 60) and the healthcare system would use the triage system, so we can estimate that nearly all elderly will die. Of we transform it to the us, with this president, the non-existent healthcare of common people(cashier, ...) and the lower densinity, it would be a great stroke of luck if 1 million would die.

@M1sf3t sorry i have misread it.

@pythonInRelay

How very optimistic, dare I say even romantic.

Did you also factor in the huge spike in deaths that is inevitable once the US health system is overwhelmed, or the cases where people will simple stay at home and die rather than risk burdening their family with insurmountable health care costs?

@kwilliams

It's a simple model.

I think it would be interesting if we built a model as a group here on devrant. Or had a competition for most accurate forecast. We have all this brainpower sitting around, need to be using it for something worthwhile.

@Wisecrack
Theoretical mathematical model of covid-19 in the usa.
https://youtu.be/oRCn5xPLCKs

Reported U.S numbers can't be trusted.

Why?

You think everyone can afford to be tested ? In America everything costs money, especially healthcare.

@stonestorm not only us numbers. Turkey also falsifies their values and brasilia has a lot of unknown, since they dont stop the spread. Afrika is also "dark".

Well my model was apparently wrong. Looks like ongoing on-again/off-again outbreaks till September.

@Wisecrack
At least you tried and hopefully learned something. And this is a good thing 😊

In the USA that shit will continue well into 2021 because of those right wing protests to open up again. I believe the Texan governor said yesterday “there are more important things than living” 😱