Somebody want to bet that by next year, the US governement is a LLM and nuked the world? I bet 10 euros in btc.

I can even do 3-to-1.

You think BTC, a currency that requires electricity and the internet, will still be used in the nuclear apocalypse?

@atheist AI likes electricity and the internet

Lets just leave it at Europe. I am okay with these kinds of losses. ;-)

Wasn't Zelensky requesting nukes? Also, I understood that if Israel thinks they will lose in a major conflict they have a protocol to nuke the world into oblivion.

@Demolishun shhh evidently nobody knows Israel has nukes

it's like giving the crazy guy nukes. optics, guiizz

maybe you could make a bet on polymarket. idk how it works

@atheist it does not require the internet.

And electricity is easy to make

@Demolishun it's not the 60ies anymore. You cannot nuke one continent, it's all or nothing

@Demolishun it's not the 60ies anymore. You cannot nuke one continent, it's all or nothing

@jestdotty the polymarket? I heard once you're married it's called swinging

Eh, nothing ever fucking happens. There was an insurrection in the US, people with guns ran the capitol, riot police took them away and that was that. War broke out in an NATO neighbor, the EU failed to vote on some sanctions for a few months, everyone threw a bunch of money and equipment at the defenders and that was that. Israel had enough of the Gaza conflict, mowed down a bunch of innocent civilians, and that's fucking that. Nuclear non-proliferation is failing because the US isn't disincentivizing it as well as they used to, but I bet all small countries will do with a nuke is demand free trade and make baseless threats that no one believes.

Everything is so localized. The wildest things happen, everyone recalculates their incentives, tweaks their prices, and moves on. The world economy acts as this massive trampoline that doesn't stop world-shaking events but somehow dissipates their pressure. Any win balances any loss, so even destroying a city just sounds kind of expensive.

Unlike Israel and Iran, Russia actually is large enough to survive in isolation, but they didn't act on any of their nuclear threats. Why? I say because doing so is literally never worth it for any agent. If you lost a war so brutally that your country becomes an oppressed minority, it's still not better off nuked.

I don't believe that Israel has a nuclear revenge plan because I don't think there's a smidgeon of sincere patriotism or camaraderie in Netanjahu and his ilk, and his self interest dictates to retire in exile if his country is standing to lose.

+ Immediately before the war, he was most known for trying to quickly subvert democratic institutions before the next election, and then promptly getting impeached.

@lorentz The nuclear holocaust is necessary so that our friends the communists from the sky come to reveal us the truth.

@lorentz lol that wasn't an insurrection

ofc if you listen to people crying wolf nothing ever happens

war will happen because "war generates money" by reducing the demand of humans by reducing the number of humans

you kill the citizens of rich countries, hide the numbers, steal their money

even though on the economics side it's a fallacy that war gets anyone out of a recession, because you don't build any wealth and simply go into debt. but if you had a country of 30 million and you sent all the men off to war and they died now you have a country of 15 million women and half as many mouths to feed. suddenly everyone is twice as rich. and look they could keep the country running without the men! we didn't need those extra workers after all. let's make everyone work overtime forever!

@jestdotty Fewer people also means less work being done and thus less supply. The main difference is that because commerce dips in every sector not needed for the army, economies of scale don't work as well and prices in these areas rise.

@lorentz nope

you taught everyone delayed gratification

they laboured and you didn't pay them back for their labour

they dug up the minerals, processed the raw goods, built the infrastructure, and then you remove them so they can't use it

inheritance tax means you get all of their savings
all their stocks, all their retirement funds
all their houses, properties, cars, furniture, electronics, stuff

suddenly you have more houses, room on the roads, more furniture to go around

only food is perishable, and they've invented for you new farming techniques. now we have drones picking fruit off plantations. no need for people. that's the point. automatic long-haul truck drivers. the actual military is unmanned drones

@jestdotty fuel, food, infrastructure, maintenance and the service sector are all either used up in a war or don't run without people.

@lorentz mining is done with automated trucks and rigs, we got a big industry of such here in Canada and it pays big but you're just coding giant mining trucks. people are not involved because it's safer with machines, but this means it's been all automated decades ago.
food is automated nutrient pipes with drones picking. they've been doing urban farming with just water pipes for a while.
service sector is self checkout. I hate these things. cuz suddenly this one guy behind the desk is yelling at you telling you you're self-checking out wrong. I'm not your employee, dipshit. you'd have to pay for this privilege

maintenance remains but they like to let that rot for decades so they can cause forest fires to tell you it's global warming when in reality it's some insurance / stock and real estate fraud in hawaii where they were warned repeatedly about the flammable brush over over the power lines and kept ignoring it because people were gonna make big bucks when it popped

@jestdotty Right, and how long do these operations run before the human supervisor has to step in to untangle the robots from the undergrowth? I admit I haven't looked at this in a few years, but based on 2018's "cutting edge" showcases in automated farming, the half life of unsupervised planters would be about 10 minutes.

Maybe half life isn't a good metric actually since there's no way in hell the robots know how to identify and navigate around a broken peer so cascades are all but guaranteed.

@jestdotty

> lol that wasn't an insurrection

yeah exactly. A bunch of submissive pussies. If you take guns to the executive palace and manage to get it, just stay there, you goddamn idiot.

Imagine if the american had conquered berlin in 1945 and then then decided to just leave just because why tf not? It's basic strategy lmao they were just clowns.

@lorentz it doesn't matter. it means few people can produce food for many more people

the wealth is in the infrastructure. in the nutrient pipes existing, the designs for where to place plants having been done by someone, all the R&D in trying different farming designs that didn't work out, architect of the building, labour of the construction workers who were promised pensions and retirement funds, all the drone research and development and designs people had sweated over and were probably given stock options from their companies to do. the research and development for the AI on these drones to be able to navigate the environment to such a precision. now you can remove them all out of the picture because you solved the problem, and you'll have the same wealth because they did all the work prior

@antigermanist if they look like "clowns" and not insurrectionists maybe they were never insurrectionists

it's not that the "enemy is dumb" and worth humiliating. it's that someone is telling you someone is an enemy when that clearly wasn't what they were doing. on and on it goes

war propaganda often makes fun of the enemy and makes caricatures of them. I never really quite understood why. maybe it helps morale but when when your people are in front of the enemy with the trigger in their hands they won't have the morale to pull it so it just seemed dumb to me

@antigermanist do you know what that "distributed" bit means?

@atheist no idea no